Preserving Humanity

= Preserving Humanity =

About This Wiki
The Preserving Humanity Wiki is a resource for those interested in identifying threats to humanity as well as potential strategies for avoiding or limiting those threats. By humanity, we refer both to the human species and to what are typically seen as the more positive attributes of the species: that is, the quality of being humane. By preserving, we refer to the long-term survival of what remains a still-young species.

The rationale for this wiki is that, although human beings are currently the dominant species on the planet in many respects, like other species we exist in a vulnerable state. The quickest way to extinction, of course, would be via a cataclysmic event. Natural species-threatening catastrophes include events such as the impact of large meteors, the eruption of so-called super volcanoes, highly virulent natural pandemics, and cosmic radiation events. Potential human-made catastrophes include events such as nuclear warfare, biological attacks, environmental degradation and - further into the future - the possible misapplication of technologies such as nanotechnology, particle physics, artificial intelligence and robotics, and new genetic and biotechnological advances.

But not all species disappear as the result of sudden catastrophes. Indeed, such catastrophes might be the exception rather the rule when it comes to extinctions. Therefore, this wiki also examines other reasonable theories of extinction.

Unlike any other Earth species that has come before, as far as we know, humanity has the ability to foresee, plan for, and possibly even forestall threats to its future. We hope that this wiki will serve as a kind clearinghouse for rational ideas and accurate information about how to preserve the species. The focus is intended to be empirical, scientific or futuristic rather than mystical, religious or gratuitously apocalyptic.

It should be noted that, despite facing a number of serious challenges and dangers, the human species is thriving. This wiki is intended to function as just one tool for trying to ensure that this trend continues even as we find ways of intelligently coexisting with the other species on the planet. In short, the goal is to help make humanity more resilient in a sometimes hostile universe.

The Current State of Humanity
There are over 6.5 billion people on the face of the planet, according to the World Population Clock of the U.S. Census Bureau. Not only there are more humans than ever before, but recent progress in terms of agriculture, sanitation, medicine and other sociotechnological systems allow many people to live longer, healthier lives than their forebears. Over the last half a century, life expectancies have risen from 48 to 67 years for women and from 45 to 63 for men, according to data from the International Labour Organization. A recent article in the New York Times (Kolata, 2006) notes that humans in industrialized countries have physically changed quite dramatically over the last 100 years. They tend to be taller and sturdier than before, with certain chronic diseases such as heart problems and arthritis occurring a decade or more later than they did among relatively recent ancestors. Average I.Q.s have also been on the rise.

In many ways, of course, this is all excellent news. It means that human beings are an incredibly successful species, able to simultaneous increase both population and health. But an increasingly large global population of increasingly large individual mammals who are living in high concentrations in most of the habitable world can also be viewed as vulnerable, from an ecological point of view.

Theories About Human Extinction
"Some say the world will end in fire, some say in ice." -- Robert Frost

Despite the huge success of the human species in recent centuries, some observers believe there may well be an increased likelihood of some extinction event occurring in relatively near future (as in, say, the next century or two). In his book A Guide to the End of the World, author Bill McGuire points to

http://www.anthropic-principle.com/faq.html http://www.anthropic-principle.com/primer1.html

Potential Threats and Possible Solutions
There are various texts that deal with the threats facing humanity.

Asteroids and Comets
http://www.washington.edu/newsroom/news/2001archive/02-01archive/k022201.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_event#Mass_extinctions_and_impacts

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/exti22ww.shtml

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/1184556.stm

http://spaceflightnow.com/news/n0501/22extinction/

Super Eruptions
EVENT

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/050308_super_volcano.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/4326987.stm

http://www.iee.org/OnComms/Circuit/benefits/Editorials/Features/super_eruptions.cfm

http://www.nhm.ac.uk/nature-online/environmental-change/asl-2005/html-version/volcano/volcano-past.html

http://www.nature.com/news/2004/040112/pf/040112-17_pf.html

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS OR PREPARATIONS

Gamma-Ray Bursts
EVENT

http://hubblesite.org/newscenter/newsdesk/archive/releases/1998/17/

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4433963.stm

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/astronomy/gammaray_bursts_010522-1.html

http://www.physorg.com/news3625.html

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3900550/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_ray_burst

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_ray_burst#Mass_extinction_on_Earth

POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS OR PREPARATIONS

Scenarios
The Global Business Network, a scenario consultancy, notes that "scenarios are tools for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which today's decisions might be played out." Scenarios are are a tool used by various businesses to gain insights into possible futures and potential responses to those futures. Shell, for example, is a corporation that has pioneered this techniques of futures thinking. Shell produces a set of global scenarios, making summaries and excerts available to the public. Wired.com also provides information on scenarios and how to build them.

We invite authors to craft detailed scenarios that focus on the challenges that humanity may face in coming years and how it may deal with these challenges. Scenarios can focus on a specific problem or a series of related problems, and they can be set various time frames. Generally speaking, the further into the future a scenario is set, the less likely it becomes. But scenarios are not as much about "predicting" the future as they are about allowing us to make better, more-informed decisions in the present. After all, although a cliche, it's largely true that what we decide as a society today will help shape the world of tomorrow.

Relevant Links
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1511/is_10_21/ai_65368918/pg_1

http://www.answers.com/topic/human-extinction

http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/

http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/Main_Page

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning

http://www.monitor.com/cgi-bin/iowa/ideas/index.html?article=207

http://www.monitor.com/binary-data/MONITOR_ARTICLES/object/207.PDF

http://www.gbn.com/GBNDocumentDisplayServlet.srv?aid=34550&url=%2FUploadDocumentDisplayServlet.srv%3Fid%3D35520

http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/cornwallis3.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_Huebner